By Marty Kufus
Wilson County News

FLORESVILLE — In the second round of regional water planning, now underway, Bexar County’s long-range population figures will decrease significantly and there is no good argument against those planning changes, according to a water-issues discussion last week.

"Bexar County has no factors it can protest on," Dan Hardin, an Austin staff member of the Texas Water Development Board, said during a question-and-answer session.

Representatives of the South Central Texas Regional Water Planning Group held a special meeting Aug. 28 in the Wilson County Show Barn. It drew an audience of about 40.

Three regional water planners attended: group Chairman Evelyn Bonavita of San Antonio, geologist Darrell Brownlow of Wilson County, and Commissioner Jay Millikin of Comal County.

Members of the regional planning group’s administrative and technical staffs were on hand, as well.

The projections of Bexar County’s population were "way over-inflated in the last [regional] plan," said Hardin. He is the assistant director of water-resources planning at the state board.

That plan, sent to the water board in January 2001, was based mostly on the 1990 federal census. (The 2000 Census’ figures were not yet available.) Listing decade-by-decade totals, the plan put Bexar County’s year-2050 population at 3.08 million.

Region L’s and 15 other regional plans were blended into the state’s 2002 water plan.

The next regional plans are due in 2006. Now under development, they will be based on the 2000 Census.

In a preliminary report released last month, state researchers projected Bexar County’s populations downward, compared to those in the 2001 plan, across the decades.

For 2050, it was projected at about 2.37 million, a decrease of 711,431 from the first plan’s figure (Aug. 7 Wilson County News).

Region-wide, the downward adjustments reach 655,079 for the year 2050. Fewer people means less water to be planned for.

Some counties in the region will have their population projections adjusted upward. Wilson County is among them.

The 2000 Census showed its population to be 32,408. From that, Wilson’s population recently was projected higher across the decades, ultimately at 106,373 for year 2050 — a big difference compared to the figure in the 2001 regional plan: 81,961.

Among the defined "water user groups," the biggest gainer in Wilson County is projected to be the S.S. Water Supply Corp., headquartered near La Vernia.

In the year 2000, it served 8,701 people. In 2050, S.S. will serve 38,589, according to recent projections.

From February through April of this year, researchers at the water board worked on the projections with three other state agencies: the parks and wildlife and agriculture departments and the natural resource conservation commission.

Projections, Hardin said, are not "predictions."

Rather, they are calculations on the assumption that demographic changes of the recent past could continue into the future.

And, from these population projections come the water-demand projections used in regional planning. The common unit of water measurement is the acre-foot: about 325,860 gallons — a year’s supply for eight or so Texans.

In the first years of regional planning, Wilson County was regarded as a possible future source of exportable "surplus" ground (aquifer) water for San Antonio.

Revised population projections, and recent advances in ground-water availability modeling using highly sophisticated computer software, could affect that outlook.

An audience member last week asked whether San Antonio — by far, the largest water consumer in the 20 1/2-county region — might challenge its downward adjustments in population projections.

"For them," Hardin said, "the data is simply not there" to support that.

Because of the 2000 Census and subsequent recalculations, San Antonio is projected in the long run to "lose" 392,736 residents.

Last year’s regional water plan projected the city’s year-2050 population at 2.39 million. It recently was adjusted to just over 2 million.

The region’s county and municipal governments and other water-user groups have until Sept. 30 to request changes to these population projections.

The regional planning group will decide on the requests, under rules set by the water board. Data and documentation must support each request.

The planning group will report its decisions to the water board, which has the final say, according to discussion last week.
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